iPad Could Finally End The Apple TV Hobby

If you coexist outside of Apple 'cultism' then an Apple TV won't mean an awful lot to you. Ironically the very same people form orderly queues, at funny hours in the morning, trying to get their hands on Apple's 'one more thing'.

So why is this? And why hasn't Apple had the same success with the Apple TV as it has with iPods, iPhones and most recently iPads? And of course lets not forget computers, the foundation on which Apple has built its success to become the largest tech company on the planet.

A clue as to why Apple TV remains a hobby was revealed at the recent D8 conference where CEO Steve Jobs, explained that Apple has no interest in a market that precludes it from rolling out a viable go-to-market strategy. In simple english, they can't make serious money from set top boxes whilst cable companies provide these for free.

Of course the same argument could be made about the iPhone when the CEO of Microsoft claimed nobody would pay $500 dollars for a phone when providers gave one away as part of a subscription contract. And yet here we are three years on and Apple is doing very nicely indeed.

The devils in the detail.

Usually when Steve Jobs is asked about future technology trends or Apple products and strategy he always gives pretty straight forward answers. Sometimes brutal but always honest. He also has a knack of leading most people up the garden path and off the scent. Of course if you read enough into what he says you can sometimes pick up a few crumbtrails and hazzard a guess as to where he's going.

So when he says Apple isn't interested in taking Apple TV from a hobby into another billion dollar business simply because the 'opportunity to go-to-market' isn't there, he's telling fibs. He knows exactly how to create that opportunity and this is how he's going to do it.

Enter the iPad

In order to understand how Apple thinks you need to see the bigger picture. When Apple release new technology into the market they always leverage the power of another. Take the Apple computer for example. It's no coincidence that sales of Apple computers increased when the first iPod's came to market. You needed a computer to load songs on to the iPod so what better way to enjoy the seamless integration between device and hub than on a Mac. And of course no iPod would be complete without songs, so enter iTunes. You get the picture?

Prior to the iPod people thought Macs were over complicated and built for designers, geeks or aliens. Most people i knew who 'hated' Macs had never even used or turned one on. However, once they saw how well designed and easy the iPod was to use the barriers came down a little and people started to take a closer look. Of course even Apple would concede that the early market dominance of Microsoft in the 80's and 90's, running software on cheap hardware from all and sundry never really gave them a chance to gain real market share, despite the iPods dominance.

But all that's about to change as people seek entertainment value away from 'working machines' like high end desk or laptops, to more dedicated and portable devices like iPads and tablets. And this time Apple is in the driving seat.

When Daniel Eran Dilger once said, 'Low Def Is The New HD' he was spot on. Although until the iPad arrived things were a little too low def for my liking. I'm sure the reason why my eyes have started to deteriorate is partly due to trying to read or watch content from my iPhone. Now the iPad is here things are looking a lot more balanced.

And so it's here, in the iPad ecosystem, that Apple TV will eventually leverage on the iPads success and create that viable go-to-market strategy that Apple craves. Why? Because the iPad is going to be a huge success make no mistake about that. It'll dominate hand held portable devices in the same way Microsoft dominated the PC market.

Apple TV new design

In order for the iPhone to succeed they had to enter the smartphone category and uncharted territory. Being able to tap into its vast iTunes ecosystem gave the iPhone a huge advantage over its rivals (remember the package). And so like the iPhone, Apple TV will need to change from its current design.

At D8 Steve Jobs pointed out that people already have too many boxes under the TV with different software interfaces that they don't need anymore. And unless the user interface becomes familiar across these devices, people will be resistant to change. So Apple TV needs to be smaller and less intrusive and yet act as a 'hub' for iTunes in order to distribute content between devices. In the same way Apple market that people already know the iPad through the iPhone, so people will already know the Apple TV through iTunes. But iTunes will also need to change, moving away from a desktop client to a web based interface (iTunes.com??). We are already seeing the first iteration of this with MobileMe.

And so as the Apple TV becomes the hub for distribution of streaming media through web based software, so the need for local storage will seize to be less important, allowing a smaller form factor and lower price. Apple's $1billion server farm will take care of storage. All this will mean the ability to access your content from anywhere in the world.

Back to the iPad. In the same way the iBook app gives access to books, the app store will offer movies/tv shows/podcasts etc... through the Apple cloud and a new way of storing and interacting with your media. It'll be low def at first but will slowly get better as thing get faster (1080p anyone?).

I remember when the iPhone first came out and people didn't understand the concept of the app store until Apple started spelling it out, then it exploded. The same will apply to the iPad and once people start seeing the way it handles video and other similar types of media, it'll just take off in the same way. This is when TV and the way we interact with it will change forever.

Imagine a device that that can store and stream content back and forward to your TV as well as your iPod/iPhone/iPod and PC. The tech is there now, but nobody except Apple have the packages in place to deliver it. Google are claiming to have it but so far i've seen nothing to convince me it'll all come together. Besides i think a lot of what Google announced at the I/O keynotes is based on what they already know Apple is about to do.

Who knows iTunes could even return to what it was originally intended for...music. Now wouldn't that be something?